Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +0.5pts: 89¢ at window start → 89¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 89¢ (band 83¢–89¢)
  band from 166 hourly obs / 7.0d
• BOOK Book 1.2:1 ask, $15.7k/$18.5k within 10¢
• VOLUME 0.9× this market's 7-day norm, $6.7k in 24h

Book 1.2:1 ask, $15.7k/$18.5k within 10¢ · spread 2.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 21 Aug 2026, 18:15 UTC: Band breach (upper): 89¢ → 89¢ (+0.5pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.08× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 0 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 89¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 89¢, held +0.5ptspts
• Peak move: +0.5pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: yes
• Price at close: 89¢
• Graded from 178 snapshots