Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -0.3pts: 92¢ at window start → 92¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 92¢ (band 92¢–97¢)
  band from 164 hourly obs / 7.0d
• VOLUME 1.8× this market's 7-day norm, $14.8k in 24h
• BOOK Book 111.9:1 ask, $2.3k/$253.9k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $1000, 6.9× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 448 trades / 7d

Book 111.9:1 ask, $2.3k/$253.9k within 10¢ · spread 0.6¢

Triggers (3)

• 21 Aug 2026, 16:16 UTC: Sustained reprice: 92¢ → 88¢ (-4.1pts), confirmed over 30s
• 21 Aug 2026, 16:31 UTC: Sustained reprice: 88¢ → 91¢ (+3.5pts), confirmed over 30s
• 21 Aug 2026, 17:09 UTC: Band breach (lower): 91¢ → 92¢ (+0.6pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.93× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 25 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 88¢, drift +0.1pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 92¢, held +0.5ptspts
• Peak move: +4.3pts
• Held 7% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: yes
• Price at close: 92¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots