OUTSIDE BAND
FINALISED: FROZEN
Kalshi
When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?
Window 21 Aug 2026, 19:25 UTC → 21 Aug 2026, 20:55 UTC
Price at window start 6¢ → at trigger 5¢ → at close 5¢
YES down · NO up
Resolves 01 Oct 2026, 13:59 UTC
Frozen payload
- REPRICED Repriced -1.0pts: 6¢ at window start → 5¢ at close
- OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 5¢ (band 5¢–11¢)
band from 156 hourly obs / 6.5d
- BOOK Book 1.0:1 bid, $8.8k/$8.7k within 10¢
- VOLUME 1.3× this market's 7-day norm, $2.2k in 24h
Book 1.0:1 bid, $8.8k/$8.7k within 10¢ · spread 3.0¢
Triggers (1)
- 21 Aug 2026, 19:25 UTC: Band breach (lower): 6¢ → 5¢ (-1.0pts), confirmed over 30s
Context artifact
@unusual_whales · X: posted 1h 8m before the break
Iran and Oman have reportedly discussed resuming talks over Strait of Hormuz, per Al Arabiya
View the post
Shown as timing context from the sources TruthPing watches. Its appearance near the move is an observation, not an explanation.
Context
- Opening move ≈ 0.2× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
- 4 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)
Outcome: graded at window close
- +2m after alert: 5¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
- +30m: 5¢, held +1.0ptspts
- Peak move: +1.5pts
- Held 67% of the peak move at close
- Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
- Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
- Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
- Gave back half within 60m: no
- Price at close: 5¢
- Graded from 180 snapshots