US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -0.8pts: 68¢ at window start → 67¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 67¢ (band 67¢–80¢)
  band from 165 hourly obs / 7.0d
• BOOK Book 1.8:1 bid, $20.3k/$11.6k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $876, 2.1× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 1,159 trades / 7d
• VOLUME 1.1× this market's 7-day norm, $58.9k in 24h

Book 1.8:1 bid, $20.3k/$11.6k within 10¢ · spread 1.1¢

Triggers (1)

• 21 Aug 2026, 22:27 UTC: Band breach (lower): 68¢ → 67¢ (-0.5pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.04× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 6 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 67¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 67¢, held +0.7ptspts
• Peak move: +1.2pts
• Held 63% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 67¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots