OUTSIDE BAND FINALISED: FROZEN Polymarket

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

Window 21 Aug 2026, 16:57 UTC → 21 Aug 2026, 18:27 UTC

Price at window start 32¢ → at trigger 31¢ → at close 31¢

YES down · NO up

Resolves 31 Dec 2026, 00:00 UTC

Frozen payload

REPRICED Repriced -1.0pts: 32¢ at window start → 31¢ at close
OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 31¢ (band 31¢–46¢)
band from 164 hourly obs / 7.0d
BOOK Book 1.3:1 bid, $53.5k/$41.3k within 10¢
UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $3.4k, 3.2× this market's typical big trade
size baseline: 95th pct of 1,338 trades / 7d
VOLUME 1.4× this market's 7-day norm, $117.7k in 24h

Book 1.3:1 bid, $53.5k/$41.3k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

21 Aug 2026, 16:57 UTC: Band breach (lower): 32¢ → 31¢ (-1.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context artifact

@FirstSquawk · X: posted 29 min before the break

OMAN AND IRAN'S FOREIGN MINISTERS TALK ABOUT HOW TO RESTART NEGOTIATIONS TO ENSURE NAVIGATION IN THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ. OMAN STATE NEWS AGENCY REPORTED.

View the post

Shown as timing context from the sources TruthPing watches. Its appearance near the move is an observation, not an explanation.

Context

Opening move ≈ 0.07× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
31 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

+2m after alert: 30¢, drift +1.0pts in the alert direction
+30m: 31¢, held +1.0ptspts
Peak move: +2.0pts
Held 50% of the peak move at close
Still beyond trigger at +10m: yes
Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
Gave back half within 60m: yes
Price at close: 31¢
Graded from 180 snapshots