NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +0.0pts: 26¢ at window start → 26¢ at close
• VOLUME 12.3× this market's 7-day norm, $110.2k in 24h
• BOOK Book 1.7:1 bid, $10.3k/$6.2k within 10¢

Book 1.7:1 bid, $10.3k/$6.2k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 21 Aug 2026, 16:01 UTC: Band breach (upper): 26¢ → 26¢ (+0.5pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.12× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 5 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 26¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 26¢, held +0.5ptspts
• Peak move: +0.5pts
• Held 0% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: yes
• Price at close: 26¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots