Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +0.0pts: 32¢ at window start → 32¢ at close
• VOLUME 1.6× this market's 7-day norm, $7.3k in 24h
• BOOK Book 1.3:1 ask, $1.4k/$1.8k within 10¢

Book 1.3:1 ask, $1.4k/$1.8k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 21 Aug 2026, 17:15 UTC: Band breach (lower): 32¢ → 31¢ (-0.5pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.04× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 5 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 31¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 31¢, held +0.5ptspts
• Peak move: +0.5pts
• Held 0% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: yes
• Price at close: 32¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots