OUTSIDE BAND
FINALISED: FROZEN
Kalshi
Best AI at the end of 2026?
Window 21 Aug 2026, 13:34 UTC → 21 Aug 2026, 15:04 UTC
Price at window start 69¢ → at trigger 72¢ → at close 68¢
YES up · NO down
Resolves 31 Dec 2026, 15:00 UTC
Frozen payload
- REPRICED Repriced -1.3pts: 69¢ at window start → 68¢ at close
- VOLUME 1.6× this market's 7-day norm, $12.0k in 24h
- BOOK Book 3.5:1 ask, $2.9k/$10.3k within 10¢
Book 3.5:1 ask, $2.9k/$10.3k within 10¢ · spread 1.9¢
Triggers (2)
- 21 Aug 2026, 13:34 UTC: Band breach (upper): 69¢ → 72¢ (+2.2pts), confirmed over 30s
- 21 Aug 2026, 14:52 UTC: Sustained reprice: 72¢ → 69¢ (-3.1pts), confirmed over 30s
Context
- Opening move ≈ 0.75× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
- 11 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)
Outcome: graded at window close
- +2m after alert: 72¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
- +30m: 72¢, held +2.3ptspts
- Peak move: +2.3pts
- Held 0% of the peak move at close
- Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
- Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
- Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
- Gave back half within 60m: yes
- Price at close: 68¢
- Graded from 180 snapshots