OUTSIDE BAND
FINALISED: FROZEN
Kalshi
Best AI at the end of 2026?
Window 21 Aug 2026, 20:07 UTC → 21 Aug 2026, 21:37 UTC
Price at window start 70¢ → at trigger 71¢ → at close 69¢
YES up · NO down
Resolves 31 Dec 2026, 15:00 UTC
Frozen payload
- REPRICED Repriced -0.4pts: 70¢ at window start → 69¢ at close
- BOOK Book 3.5:1 ask, $3.1k/$10.7k within 10¢
- VOLUME 0.9× this market's 7-day norm, $7.4k in 24h
Book 3.5:1 ask, $3.1k/$10.7k within 10¢ · spread 2.2¢
Triggers (1)
- 21 Aug 2026, 20:07 UTC: Band breach (upper): 70¢ → 71¢ (+1.6pts), confirmed over 30s
Context
- Opening move ≈ 0.55× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
- 18 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)
Outcome: graded at window close
- +2m after alert: 71¢, drift -0.2pts in the alert direction
- +30m: 71¢, held +1.5ptspts
- Peak move: +1.6pts
- Held 0% of the peak move at close
- Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
- Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
- Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
- Gave back half within 60m: no
- Price at close: 69¢
- Graded from 180 snapshots