Best AI at the end of 2026?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +0.5pts: 70¢ at window start → 70¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 70¢ (band 67¢–70¢)
  band from 162 hourly obs / 7.0d
• BOOK Book 1.9:1 ask, $5.3k/$10.4k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $260, 2.8× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 2,110 trades / 7d
• VOLUME 1.3× this market's 7-day norm, $9.7k in 24h

Book 1.9:1 ask, $5.3k/$10.4k within 10¢ · spread 1.4¢

Triggers (1)

• 21 Aug 2026, 01:43 UTC: Band breach (upper): 70¢ → 71¢ (+0.7pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.25× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 25 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 71¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 71¢, held +0.8ptspts
• Peak move: +0.8pts
• Held 69% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 70¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots