2028 Republican presidential nominee

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -3.0pts: 23¢ at window start → 20¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 23¢ (band 23¢–43¢)
  band from 166 hourly obs / 7.0d
• VOLUME 1.7× this market's 7-day norm, $2.4k in 24h
• BOOK Book 10.7:1 ask, $5.7k/$61.4k within 10¢

Book 10.7:1 ask, $5.7k/$61.4k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 21 Aug 2026, 12:54 UTC: Sustained reprice: 23¢ → 19¢ (-3.5pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.18× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 31 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 19¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 20¢, held +3.0ptspts
• Peak move: +4.0pts
• Held 75% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 20¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots