Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +0.0pts: 71¢ at window start → 71¢ at close
• BOOK Book 5.1:1 ask, $67.5k/$343.0k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $3.0k, 6.6× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 1,773 trades / 7d
• VOLUME 0.9× this market's 7-day norm, $54.9k in 24h

Book 5.1:1 ask, $67.5k/$343.0k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 20 Aug 2026, 14:02 UTC: Band breach (lower): 71¢ → 70¢ (-1.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.25× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 38 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 70¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 71¢, held +0.0ptspts
• Peak move: +1.0pts
• Held 0% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: yes
• Price at close: 71¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots