Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -1.5pts: 70¢ at window start → 69¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 70¢ (band 70¢–73¢)
  band from 165 hourly obs / 7.0d
• BOOK Book 4.6:1 ask, $61.5k/$281.9k within 10¢
• VOLUME 1.4× this market's 7-day norm, $83.8k in 24h

Book 4.6:1 ask, $61.5k/$281.9k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 20 Aug 2026, 21:36 UTC: Band breach (lower): 70¢ → 70¢ (-0.5pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.13× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 7 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 69¢, drift +1.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 69¢, held +1.5ptspts
• Peak move: +1.5pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 69¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots