Will Russia enter Dopropillia by December 31, 2026?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +5.5pts: 84¢ at window start → 89¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 83¢ (band 80¢–83¢)
  band from 163 hourly obs / 7.0d
• VOLUME 2.8× this market's 7-day norm, $2.5k in 24h
• BOOK Book 1.7:1 ask, $10.7k/$18.0k within 10¢

Book 1.7:1 ask, $10.7k/$18.0k within 10¢ · spread 6.0¢

Triggers (2)

• 20 Aug 2026, 19:21 UTC: Sustained reprice: 84¢ → 87¢ (+3.0pts), confirmed over 30s
• 20 Aug 2026, 19:27 UTC: Sustained reprice: 87¢ → 90¢ (+3.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 1× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 1 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 88¢, drift +1.5pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 89¢, held +5.0ptspts
• Peak move: +6.0pts
• Held 92% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: yes
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: yes
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: yes
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 89¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots