Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +2.4pts: 22¢ at window start → 24¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 22¢ (band 18¢–22¢)
  band from 166 hourly obs / 7.0d
• VOLUME 2.8× this market's 7-day norm, $55.1k in 24h
• BOOK Book 3.5:1 bid, $12.0k/$3.5k within 10¢

Book 3.5:1 bid, $12.0k/$3.5k within 10¢ · spread 0.3¢

Triggers (1)

• 20 Aug 2026, 21:37 UTC: Sustained reprice: 22¢ → 25¢ (+3.1pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.98× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 2 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 25¢, drift -0.1pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 24¢, held +2.6ptspts
• Peak move: +3.3pts
• Held 73% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 24¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots