Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +0.5pts: 87¢ at window start → 88¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 87¢ (band 83¢–87¢)
  band from 165 hourly obs / 7.0d
• BOOK Book 9.0:1 ask, $8.1k/$72.4k within 10¢
• VOLUME 0.6× this market's 7-day norm, $3.8k in 24h

Book 9.0:1 ask, $8.1k/$72.4k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 20 Aug 2026, 01:50 UTC: Band breach (upper): 87¢ → 88¢ (+0.5pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.11× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 1 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 88¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 88¢, held +0.5ptspts
• Peak move: +0.5pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 88¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots