Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -0.5pts: 30¢ at window start → 29¢ at close
• VOLUME 7.6× this market's 7-day norm, $117.1k in 24h
• BOOK Book 12.3:1 ask, $6.6k/$81.2k within 10¢

Book 12.3:1 ask, $6.6k/$81.2k within 10¢ · spread 2.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 20 Aug 2026, 19:56 UTC: Band breach (upper): 30¢ → 30¢ (+0.5pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.17× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 8 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 30¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 30¢, held +0.5ptspts
• Peak move: +0.5pts
• Held 0% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: yes
• Price at close: 29¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots