Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +0.5pts: 30¢ at window start → 30¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 30¢ (band 27¢–30¢)
  band from 166 hourly obs / 7.0d
• VOLUME 7.8× this market's 7-day norm, $118.8k in 24h
• BOOK Book 7.2:1 ask, $10.6k/$77.0k within 10¢

Book 7.2:1 ask, $10.6k/$77.0k within 10¢ · spread 2.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 20 Aug 2026, 14:58 UTC: Band breach (upper): 30¢ → 30¢ (+0.5pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.17× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 2 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 30¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 30¢, held +0.0ptspts
• Peak move: +0.5pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: yes
• Price at close: 30¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots