Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +3.0pts: 28¢ at window start → 31¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 30¢ (band 27¢–30¢)
  band from 167 hourly obs / 7.0d
• VOLUME 7.8× this market's 7-day norm, $117.6k in 24h
• BOOK Book 9.6:1 ask, $8.2k/$79.3k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $560, 1.7× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 568 trades / 7d

Book 9.6:1 ask, $8.2k/$79.3k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 20 Aug 2026, 12:30 UTC: Band breach (upper): 28¢ → 31¢ (+3.5pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 1.17× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 11 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 31¢, drift -0.5pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 31¢, held +3.0ptspts
• Peak move: +3.5pts
• Held 86% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 31¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots