Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +2.0pts: 87¢ at window start → 89¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 87¢ (band 82¢–87¢)
  band from 166 hourly obs / 7.0d
• BOOK Book 1.1:1 ask, $14.4k/$15.6k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $5.3k, 6.6× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 189 trades / 7d
• VOLUME 0.9× this market's 7-day norm, $6.7k in 24h

Book 1.1:1 ask, $14.4k/$15.6k within 10¢ · spread 2.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 20 Aug 2026, 16:45 UTC: Band breach (upper): 87¢ → 88¢ (+0.5pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.09× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 12 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 88¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 88¢, held +0.5ptspts
• Peak move: +2.0pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no data
• Price at close: 89¢
• Graded from 172 snapshots