Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +0.3pts: 97¢ at window start → 97¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 97¢ (band 92¢–97¢)
  band from 165 hourly obs / 7.0d
• BOOK Book 7.5:1 ask, $3.5k/$26.1k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $558, 3.9× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 382 trades / 7d
• VOLUME 1.3× this market's 7-day norm, $6.1k in 24h

Book 7.5:1 ask, $3.5k/$26.1k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 20 Aug 2026, 06:26 UTC: Band breach (upper): 97¢ → 97¢ (+0.6pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.11× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 21 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 97¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 97¢, held +0.7ptspts
• Peak move: +0.7pts
• Held 50% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 97¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots