Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +0.6pts: 97¢ at window start → 97¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 97¢ (band 92¢–97¢)
  band from 165 hourly obs / 7.0d
• BOOK Book 2.2:1 ask, $11.0k/$23.9k within 10¢
• VOLUME 1.0× this market's 7-day norm, $4.8k in 24h

Book 2.2:1 ask, $11.0k/$23.9k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 20 Aug 2026, 02:08 UTC: Band breach (upper): 97¢ → 97¢ (+0.5pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.1× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 5 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 97¢, drift -0.1pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 97¢, held +0.1ptspts
• Peak move: +0.7pts
• Held 93% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no data
• Price at close: 97¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots