Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -0.9pts: 97¢ at window start → 96¢ at close
• VOLUME 1.7× this market's 7-day norm, $8.3k in 24h
• BOOK Book 12.0:1 ask, $2.9k/$35.1k within 10¢

Book 12.0:1 ask, $2.9k/$35.1k within 10¢ · spread 1.9¢

Triggers (1)

• 20 Aug 2026, 15:37 UTC: Band breach (upper): 97¢ → 97¢ (+0.5pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.1× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 0 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 96¢, drift -1.1pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 96¢, held -0.8ptspts
• Peak move: +0.5pts
• Held 0% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: yes
• Price at close: 96¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots