US strike on Cuba by December 31?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -0.5pts: 18¢ at window start → 17¢ at close
• VOLUME 3.2× this market's 7-day norm, $13.8k in 24h
• BOOK Book 1.2:1 ask, $11.4k/$13.5k within 10¢

Book 1.2:1 ask, $11.4k/$13.5k within 10¢ · spread 2.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 20 Aug 2026, 03:01 UTC: Band breach (lower): 18¢ → 17¢ (-1.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.33× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 6 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 17¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 17¢, held +0.5ptspts
• Peak move: +1.0pts
• Held 50% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: yes
• Price at close: 17¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots