US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -2.0pts: 10¢ at window start → 8¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 9¢ (band 9¢–19¢)
  band from 166 hourly obs / 7.0d
• BOOK Book 1.5:1 ask, $14.5k/$22.5k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $5.1k, 20.6× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 918 trades / 7d
• VOLUME 1.0× this market's 7-day norm, $27.5k in 24h

Book 1.5:1 ask, $14.5k/$22.5k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 20 Aug 2026, 20:01 UTC: Band breach (lower): 10¢ → 9¢ (-1.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.11× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 17 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 9¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 9¢, held +1.0ptspts
• Peak move: +2.0pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no data
• Price at close: 8¢
• Graded from 179 snapshots