US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +0.0pts: 10¢ at window start → 10¢ at close
• VOLUME 3.4× this market's 7-day norm, $124.1k in 24h
• BOOK Book 1.1:1 bid, $20.5k/$19.4k within 10¢

Book 1.1:1 bid, $20.5k/$19.4k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 20 Aug 2026, 17:22 UTC: Band breach (lower): 10¢ → 9¢ (-0.5pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.06× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 11 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 10¢, drift -0.5pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 10¢, held +0.0ptspts
• Peak move: +0.5pts
• Held 0% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: yes
• Price at close: 10¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots