South Carolina Republican Senate special primary winner?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +1.0pts: 70¢ at window start → 71¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 78¢ (band 78¢–90¢)
  band from 162 hourly obs / 7.0d
• VOLUME 4.2× this market's 7-day norm, $462.5k in 24h
• BOOK Book 1.1:1 bid, $82.7k/$78.0k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $19.2k, 7.4× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 3,305 trades / 7d

Book 1.1:1 bid, $82.7k/$78.0k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (2)

• 20 Aug 2026, 22:14 UTC: Sustained reprice: 70¢ → 73¢ (+3.0pts), confirmed over 30s
• 20 Aug 2026, 23:22 UTC: Sustained reprice: 73¢ → 70¢ (-3.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.23× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 61 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 73¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 71¢, held +1.0ptspts
• Peak move: +3.0pts
• Held 33% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: yes
• Price at close: 71¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots