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Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -5.0pts: 73¢ at window start → 68¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 78¢ (band 78¢–90¢)
  band from 162 hourly obs / 7.0d
• VOLUME 3.0× this market's 7-day norm, $328.5k in 24h
• BOOK Book 1.2:1 ask, $36.9k/$42.4k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $6.7k, 2.8× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 3,149 trades / 7d

Book 1.2:1 ask, $36.9k/$42.4k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 20 Aug 2026, 17:42 UTC: Sustained reprice: 73¢ → 70¢ (-3.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.25× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 111 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 70¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 70¢, held +3.0ptspts
• Peak move: +6.0pts
• Held 83% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: yes
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 68¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots