Number of rate cuts in 2026?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -0.0pts: 86¢ at window start → 86¢ at close
• BOOK Book 15.7:1 bid, $45.0k/$2.9k within 10¢
• VOLUME 1.5× this market's 7-day norm, $5.7k in 24h

Book 15.7:1 bid, $45.0k/$2.9k within 10¢ · spread 1.6¢

Triggers (1)

• 20 Aug 2026, 03:51 UTC: Band breach (upper): 86¢ → 87¢ (+1.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.33× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 6 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 87¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 86¢, held +0.1ptspts
• Peak move: +1.0pts
• Held 0% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: yes
• Price at close: 86¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots