NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +3.0pts: 49¢ at window start → 52¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 24¢ (band 21¢–24¢)
  band from 166 hourly obs / 7.0d
• VOLUME 31.4× this market's 7-day norm, $227.2k in 24h
• BOOK Book 4.8:1 ask, $428/$2.1k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $4.6k, 8.2× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 975 trades / 7d

Book 4.8:1 ask, $428/$2.1k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (9)

• 20 Aug 2026, 20:59 UTC: Sustained reprice: 49¢ → 45¢ (-3.5pts), confirmed over 30s
• 20 Aug 2026, 21:16 UTC: Sustained reprice: 45¢ → 50¢ (+4.5pts), confirmed over 30s
• 20 Aug 2026, 21:19 UTC: Sustained reprice: 50¢ → 53¢ (+3.5pts), confirmed over 30s
• 20 Aug 2026, 21:24 UTC: Sustained reprice: 53¢ → 48¢ (-5.5pts), confirmed over 30s
• 20 Aug 2026, 21:27 UTC: Sustained reprice: 48¢ → 51¢ (+3.5pts), confirmed over 30s
• 20 Aug 2026, 21:58 UTC: Sustained reprice: 51¢ → 48¢ (-3.0pts), confirmed over 30s
• 20 Aug 2026, 22:01 UTC: Sustained reprice: 48¢ → 52¢ (+3.5pts), confirmed over 30s
• 20 Aug 2026, 22:07 UTC: Sustained reprice: 52¢ → 55¢ (+3.0pts), confirmed over 30s
• 20 Aug 2026, 22:28 UTC: Sustained reprice: 55¢ → 52¢ (-3.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 1.17× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 87 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 45¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 50¢, held -1.5ptspts
• Peak move: +5.5pts
• Held 0% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: yes
• Price at close: 52¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots