REPRICED
FINALISED: FROZEN
Polymarket
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?
Window 20 Aug 2026, 16:33 UTC → 20 Aug 2026, 18:03 UTC
Price at window start 51¢ → at trigger 47¢ → at close 42¢
YES down · NO up
Resolves 01 Jan 2027, 04:59 UTC
Frozen payload
- REPRICED Repriced -9.5pts: 51¢ at window start → 42¢ at close
- OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 24¢ (band 21¢–24¢)
band from 168 hourly obs / 7.0d
- VOLUME 25.6× this market's 7-day norm, $185.5k in 24h
- BOOK Book 1.6:1 bid, $1.6k/$1.0k within 10¢
- UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $1.8k, 2.9× this market's typical big trade
size baseline: 95th pct of 762 trades / 7d
Book 1.6:1 bid, $1.6k/$1.0k within 10¢ · spread 3.0¢
Triggers (15)
- 20 Aug 2026, 16:33 UTC: Sustained reprice: 51¢ → 47¢ (-4.5pts), confirmed over 30s
- 20 Aug 2026, 16:36 UTC: Sustained reprice: 47¢ → 39¢ (-8.0pts), confirmed over 30s
- 20 Aug 2026, 16:43 UTC: Sustained reprice: 39¢ → 45¢ (+6.5pts), confirmed over 30s
- 20 Aug 2026, 16:48 UTC: Sustained reprice: 45¢ → 49¢ (+3.5pts), confirmed over 30s
- 20 Aug 2026, 16:51 UTC: Sustained reprice: 49¢ → 54¢ (+5.0pts), confirmed over 30s
- 20 Aug 2026, 16:54 UTC: Sustained reprice: 54¢ → 58¢ (+4.5pts), confirmed over 30s
- 20 Aug 2026, 16:59 UTC: Sustained reprice: 58¢ → 54¢ (-4.5pts), confirmed over 30s
- 20 Aug 2026, 17:29 UTC: Sustained reprice: 54¢ → 49¢ (-4.5pts), confirmed over 30s
- 20 Aug 2026, 17:32 UTC: Sustained reprice: 49¢ → 53¢ (+3.5pts), confirmed over 30s
- 20 Aug 2026, 17:36 UTC: Sustained reprice: 53¢ → 49¢ (-3.5pts), confirmed over 30s
- 20 Aug 2026, 17:43 UTC: Sustained reprice: 49¢ → 45¢ (-4.5pts), confirmed over 30s
- 20 Aug 2026, 17:47 UTC: Sustained reprice: 45¢ → 48¢ (+3.5pts), confirmed over 30s
- 20 Aug 2026, 17:50 UTC: Sustained reprice: 48¢ → 40¢ (-8.0pts), confirmed over 30s
- 20 Aug 2026, 17:54 UTC: Sustained reprice: 40¢ → 45¢ (+4.5pts), confirmed over 30s
- 20 Aug 2026, 17:57 UTC: Sustained reprice: 45¢ → 41¢ (-4.0pts), confirmed over 30s
Context
- Opening move ≈ 1.5× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
- 173 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)
Outcome: graded at window close
- +2m after alert: 41¢, drift +6.0pts in the alert direction
- +30m: 53¢, held -1.5ptspts
- Peak move: +14.0pts
- Held 68% of the peak move at close
- Still beyond trigger at +10m: yes
- Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
- Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
- Gave back half within 60m: yes
- Price at close: 42¢
- Graded from 180 snapshots