NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +4.0pts: 24¢ at window start → 28¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 24¢ (band 21¢–24¢)
  band from 169 hourly obs / 7.0d
• VOLUME 5.4× this market's 7-day norm, $31.5k in 24h
• BOOK Book 1.5:1 bid, $16.9k/$11.3k within 10¢

Book 1.5:1 bid, $16.9k/$11.3k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (2)

• 20 Aug 2026, 04:26 UTC: Band breach (upper): 24¢ → 25¢ (+1.0pts), confirmed over 30s
• 20 Aug 2026, 05:49 UTC: Sustained reprice: 25¢ → 28¢ (+3.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.33× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 15 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 25¢, drift +0.5pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 27¢, held +3.0ptspts
• Peak move: +4.0pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: yes
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: yes
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: yes
• Gave back half within 60m: no data
• Price at close: 28¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots