NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +0.5pts: 47¢ at window start → 47¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 24¢ (band 21¢–24¢)
  band from 167 hourly obs / 7.0d
• VOLUME 27.4× this market's 7-day norm, $198.2k in 24h
• BOOK Book 1.2:1 ask, $2.4k/$2.9k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $1000, 1.8× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 897 trades / 7d

Book 1.2:1 ask, $2.4k/$2.9k within 10¢ · spread 2.0¢

Triggers (6)

• 20 Aug 2026, 18:33 UTC: Sustained reprice: 47¢ → 43¢ (-4.0pts), confirmed over 30s
• 20 Aug 2026, 18:43 UTC: Sustained reprice: 43¢ → 46¢ (+3.0pts), confirmed over 30s
• 20 Aug 2026, 18:48 UTC: Sustained reprice: 46¢ → 50¢ (+4.0pts), confirmed over 30s
• 20 Aug 2026, 19:07 UTC: Sustained reprice: 50¢ → 53¢ (+3.0pts), confirmed over 30s
• 20 Aug 2026, 19:15 UTC: Sustained reprice: 53¢ → 50¢ (-3.0pts), confirmed over 30s
• 20 Aug 2026, 19:45 UTC: Sustained reprice: 50¢ → 46¢ (-3.5pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 1.33× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 60 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 43¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 48¢, held -1.5ptspts
• Peak move: +4.0pts
• Held 0% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: yes
• Price at close: 47¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots