OUTSIDE BAND
FINALISED: FROZEN
Polymarket
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?
Window 20 Aug 2026, 12:26 UTC → 20 Aug 2026, 13:56 UTC
Price at window start 24¢ → at trigger 25¢ → at close 35¢
YES up · NO down
Resolves 01 Jan 2027, 04:59 UTC
Frozen payload
- REPRICED Repriced +10.5pts: 24¢ at window start → 35¢ at close
- OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 24¢ (band 21¢–24¢)
band from 169 hourly obs / 7.0d
- VOLUME 13.4× this market's 7-day norm, $96.6k in 24h
- BOOK Book 3.5:1 bid, $2.6k/$749 within 10¢
- UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $4.0k, 4.6× this market's typical big trade
size baseline: 95th pct of 232 trades / 7d
Book 3.5:1 bid, $2.6k/$749 within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢
Triggers (6)
- 20 Aug 2026, 12:26 UTC: Band breach (upper): 24¢ → 25¢ (+0.5pts), confirmed over 30s
- 20 Aug 2026, 13:08 UTC: Sustained reprice: 25¢ → 28¢ (+4.0pts), confirmed over 30s
- 20 Aug 2026, 13:27 UTC: Sustained reprice: 28¢ → 32¢ (+3.0pts), confirmed over 30s
- 20 Aug 2026, 13:37 UTC: Sustained reprice: 32¢ → 37¢ (+5.0pts), confirmed over 30s
- 20 Aug 2026, 13:41 UTC: Sustained reprice: 37¢ → 40¢ (+3.0pts), confirmed over 30s
- 20 Aug 2026, 13:46 UTC: Sustained reprice: 40¢ → 35¢ (-4.5pts), confirmed over 30s
Context
- Opening move ≈ 0.17× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
- 55 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)
Outcome: graded at window close
- +2m after alert: 25¢, drift +0.5pts in the alert direction
- +30m: 25¢, held +1.0ptspts
- Peak move: +16.5pts
- Held 64% of the peak move at close
- Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
- Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
- Still beyond trigger at +60m: yes
- Gave back half within 60m: no data
- Price at close: 35¢
- Graded from 180 snapshots