REPRICED
FINALISED: FROZEN
Polymarket
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?
Window 20 Aug 2026, 14:26 UTC → 20 Aug 2026, 15:56 UTC
Price at window start 39¢ → at trigger 35¢ → at close 52¢
YES down · NO up
Resolves 01 Jan 2027, 04:59 UTC
Frozen payload
- REPRICED Repriced +13.0pts: 39¢ at window start → 52¢ at close
- OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 24¢ (band 21¢–24¢)
band from 169 hourly obs / 7.0d
- VOLUME 19.5× this market's 7-day norm, $141.2k in 24h
- BOOK Book 2.4:1 bid, $3.1k/$1.3k within 10¢
- UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $4.1k, 5.5× this market's typical big trade
size baseline: 95th pct of 347 trades / 7d
Book 2.4:1 bid, $3.1k/$1.3k within 10¢ · spread 3.0¢
Triggers (16)
- 20 Aug 2026, 14:26 UTC: Sustained reprice: 39¢ → 35¢ (-4.0pts), confirmed over 30s
- 20 Aug 2026, 14:34 UTC: Sustained reprice: 35¢ → 38¢ (+3.5pts), confirmed over 30s
- 20 Aug 2026, 14:37 UTC: Sustained reprice: 38¢ → 45¢ (+7.0pts), confirmed over 30s
- 20 Aug 2026, 14:50 UTC: Sustained reprice: 45¢ → 50¢ (+4.5pts), confirmed over 30s
- 20 Aug 2026, 14:56 UTC: Sustained reprice: 50¢ → 46¢ (-4.0pts), confirmed over 30s
- 20 Aug 2026, 14:59 UTC: Sustained reprice: 46¢ → 60¢ (+14.0pts), confirmed over 30s
- 20 Aug 2026, 15:04 UTC: Sustained reprice: 60¢ → 56¢ (-3.5pts), confirmed over 30s
- 20 Aug 2026, 15:12 UTC: Sustained reprice: 56¢ → 52¢ (-4.5pts), confirmed over 30s
- 20 Aug 2026, 15:22 UTC: Sustained reprice: 52¢ → 56¢ (+4.5pts), confirmed over 30s
- 20 Aug 2026, 15:27 UTC: Sustained reprice: 56¢ → 62¢ (+6.0pts), confirmed over 30s
- 20 Aug 2026, 15:30 UTC: Sustained reprice: 62¢ → 70¢ (+8.0pts), confirmed over 30s
- 20 Aug 2026, 15:35 UTC: Sustained reprice: 70¢ → 59¢ (-11.5pts), confirmed over 30s
- 20 Aug 2026, 15:40 UTC: Sustained reprice: 59¢ → 66¢ (+7.0pts), confirmed over 30s
- 20 Aug 2026, 15:43 UTC: Sustained reprice: 66¢ → 59¢ (-7.0pts), confirmed over 30s
- 20 Aug 2026, 15:47 UTC: Sustained reprice: 59¢ → 62¢ (+3.0pts), confirmed over 30s
- 20 Aug 2026, 15:50 UTC: Sustained reprice: 62¢ → 50¢ (-11.5pts), confirmed over 30s
Context
- Opening move ≈ 1.33× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
- 228 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)
Outcome: graded at window close
- +2m after alert: 35¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
- +30m: 46¢, held -7.0ptspts
- Peak move: +4.0pts
- Held 0% of the peak move at close
- Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
- Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
- Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
- Gave back half within 60m: yes
- Price at close: 52¢
- Graded from 180 snapshots