REPRICED
FINALISED: FROZEN
Polymarket
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?
Window 20 Aug 2026, 23:01 UTC → 21 Aug 2026, 00:31 UTC
Price at window start 34¢ → at trigger 48¢ → at close 30¢
YES up · NO down
Resolves 01 Jan 2027, 04:59 UTC
Frozen payload
- REPRICED Repriced -4.0pts: 34¢ at window start → 30¢ at close
- OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 24¢ (band 21¢–24¢)
band from 166 hourly obs / 7.0d
- VOLUME 35.6× this market's 7-day norm, $258.2k in 24h
- BOOK Book 3.2:1 bid, $40.0k/$12.7k within 10¢
- UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $1.0k, 2.1× this market's typical big trade
size baseline: 95th pct of 1,215 trades / 7d
Book 3.2:1 bid, $40.0k/$12.7k within 10¢ · spread 2.0¢
Triggers (9)
- 20 Aug 2026, 23:01 UTC: Sustained reprice: 34¢ → 48¢ (+13.5pts), confirmed over 30s
- 20 Aug 2026, 23:17 UTC: Sustained reprice: 48¢ → 51¢ (+3.0pts), confirmed over 30s
- 20 Aug 2026, 23:24 UTC: Sustained reprice: 51¢ → 55¢ (+4.0pts), confirmed over 30s
- 20 Aug 2026, 23:29 UTC: Sustained reprice: 55¢ → 49¢ (-5.5pts), confirmed over 30s
- 20 Aug 2026, 23:32 UTC: Sustained reprice: 49¢ → 30¢ (-19.5pts), confirmed over 30s
- 20 Aug 2026, 23:35 UTC: Sustained reprice: 30¢ → 26¢ (-4.0pts), confirmed over 30s
- 20 Aug 2026, 23:41 UTC: Sustained reprice: 26¢ → 30¢ (+4.0pts), confirmed over 30s
- 20 Aug 2026, 23:48 UTC: Sustained reprice: 30¢ → 38¢ (+8.5pts), confirmed over 30s
- 20 Aug 2026, 23:51 UTC: Sustained reprice: 38¢ → 30¢ (-8.5pts), confirmed over 30s
Context
- Opening move ≈ 4.5× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
- 138 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)
Outcome: graded at window close
- +2m after alert: 49¢, drift +1.0pts in the alert direction
- +30m: 29¢, held -5.0ptspts
- Peak move: +23.5pts
- Held 0% of the peak move at close
- Still beyond trigger at +10m: yes
- Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
- Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
- Gave back half within 60m: yes
- Price at close: 30¢
- Graded from 180 snapshots