China x Philippines military clash before 2027?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -2.0pts: 31¢ at window start → 28¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 30¢ (band 30¢–34¢)
  band from 167 hourly obs / 7.0d
• BOOK Book 4.8:1 ask, $3.1k/$15.2k within 10¢
• VOLUME $40.3k in 24h (7-day norm still forming)
  volume summed from the market's own trade tape

Book 4.8:1 ask, $3.1k/$15.2k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 20 Aug 2026, 14:24 UTC: Band breach (lower): 31¢ → 27¢ (-4.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 1.14× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 11 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 27¢, drift -0.5pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 28¢, held +2.5ptspts
• Peak move: +4.0pts
• Held 50% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 28¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots