Best AI at the end of 2026?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +1.7pts: 70¢ at window start → 71¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 70¢ (band 67¢–70¢)
  band from 163 hourly obs / 7.0d
• BOOK Book 1.5:1 ask, $7.2k/$10.4k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $1.4k, 15.4× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 2,210 trades / 7d
• VOLUME 1.4× this market's 7-day norm, $9.7k in 24h

Book 1.5:1 ask, $7.2k/$10.4k within 10¢ · spread 2.1¢

Triggers (1)

• 20 Aug 2026, 19:12 UTC: Band breach (upper): 70¢ → 71¢ (+1.1pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.35× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 18 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 71¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 70¢, held +0.7ptspts
• Peak move: +1.7pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no data
• Price at close: 71¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots