Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -2.0pts: 42¢ at window start → 40¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 41¢ (band 41¢–46¢)
  band from 166 hourly obs / 6.9d
• BOOK Book 8.5:1 ask, $3.6k/$30.6k within 10¢
• VOLUME 1.4× this market's 7-day norm, $11.6k in 24h

Book 8.5:1 ask, $3.6k/$30.6k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 19 Aug 2026, 01:49 UTC: Band breach (lower): 42¢ → 39¢ (-3.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.6× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 2 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 39¢, drift -0.5pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 40¢, held +2.0ptspts
• Peak move: +3.0pts
• Held 67% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 40¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots