Will Russia enter Dopropillia by December 31, 2026?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +1.5pts: 82¢ at window start → 83¢ at close
• VOLUME 2.7× this market's 7-day norm, $1.8k in 24h
• BOOK Book 3.3:1 bid, $21.2k/$6.4k within 10¢

Book 3.3:1 bid, $21.2k/$6.4k within 10¢ · spread 2.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 19 Aug 2026, 19:22 UTC: Band breach (upper): 82¢ → 84¢ (+2.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.67× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 2 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 84¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 83¢, held +1.0ptspts
• Peak move: +2.0pts
• Held 75% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: yes
• Price at close: 83¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots