Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -2.5pts: 52¢ at window start → 49¢ at close
• BOOK Book 3.9:1 bid, $19.5k/$4.9k within 10¢
• VOLUME 5.4× this market's 7-day norm, $15.3k in 24h

Book 3.9:1 bid, $19.5k/$4.9k within 10¢ · spread 2.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 19 Aug 2026, 15:15 UTC: Sustained reprice: 52¢ → 47¢ (-4.5pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 1.03× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 2 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 48¢, drift -0.5pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 48¢, held +4.0ptspts
• Peak move: +4.5pts
• Held 56% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 49¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots