Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -3.0pts: 56¢ at window start → 54¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 51¢ (band 47¢–51¢)
  band from 166 hourly obs / 7.0d
• BOOK Book 3.2:1 bid, $22.0k/$7.0k within 10¢
• VOLUME 1.0× this market's 7-day norm, $15.0k in 24h

Book 3.2:1 bid, $22.0k/$7.0k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 19 Aug 2026, 08:01 UTC: Sustained reprice: 56¢ → 53¢ (-3.5pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 1× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 7 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 53¢, drift +0.5pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 54¢, held +3.0ptspts
• Peak move: +5.5pts
• Held 55% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 54¢
• Graded from 147 snapshots