Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +0.0pts: 52¢ at window start → 52¢ at close
• BOOK Book 2.5:1 bid, $22.7k/$9.1k within 10¢
• VOLUME 5.5× this market's 7-day norm, $15.3k in 24h

Book 2.5:1 bid, $22.7k/$9.1k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 19 Aug 2026, 11:57 UTC: Band breach (upper): 52¢ → 52¢ (+0.5pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.12× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 1 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 52¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 52¢, held +0.5ptspts
• Peak move: +0.5pts
• Held 0% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 52¢
• Graded from 178 snapshots