Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +4.3pts: 53¢ at window start → 57¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 55¢ (band 52¢–55¢)
  band from 165 hourly obs / 7.0d
• VOLUME 2.1× this market's 7-day norm, $4.7k in 24h
• BOOK Book 2.3:1 bid, $21.9k/$9.6k within 10¢

Book 2.3:1 bid, $21.9k/$9.6k within 10¢ · spread 2.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 19 Aug 2026, 14:19 UTC: Band breach (upper): 53¢ → 55¢ (+2.5pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.83× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 11 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 55¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 56¢, held +3.0ptspts
• Peak move: +4.4pts
• Held 98% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no data
• Price at close: 57¢
• Graded from 176 snapshots