OUTSIDE BAND FINALISED: FROZEN Polymarket

Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Window 19 Aug 2026, 20:21 UTC → 19 Aug 2026, 21:51 UTC

Price at window start 87¢ → at trigger 87¢ → at close 87¢

YES up · NO down

Resolves 04 Oct 2026, 00:00 UTC

Frozen payload

REPRICED Repriced +0.5pts: 87¢ at window start → 87¢ at close
BOOK Book 13.9:1 ask, $7.1k/$98.7k within 10¢
VOLUME 0.9× this market's 7-day norm, $5.4k in 24h

Book 13.9:1 ask, $7.1k/$98.7k within 10¢ · spread 2.0¢

Triggers (1)

19 Aug 2026, 20:21 UTC: Band breach (upper): 87¢ → 87¢ (+0.5pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

Opening move ≈ 0.12× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
0 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

+2m after alert: 87¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
+30m: 87¢, held +0.5ptspts
Peak move: +0.5pts
Held 100% of the peak move at close
Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
Gave back half within 60m: no
Price at close: 87¢
Graded from 177 snapshots