Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -1.0pts: 28¢ at window start → 27¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 27¢ (band 27¢–30¢)
  band from 168 hourly obs / 7.0d
• BOOK Book 12.1:1 ask, $5.4k/$65.8k within 10¢
• VOLUME 0.9× this market's 7-day norm, $13.7k in 24h

Book 12.1:1 ask, $5.4k/$65.8k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 19 Aug 2026, 20:46 UTC: Band breach (lower): 28¢ → 27¢ (-1.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.33× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 10 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 27¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 27¢, held +1.0ptspts
• Peak move: +1.0pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 27¢
• Graded from 177 snapshots