Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +1.5pts: 86¢ at window start → 87¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 86¢ (band 81¢–86¢)
  band from 167 hourly obs / 7.0d
• BOOK Book 1.8:1 bid, $16.5k/$9.4k within 10¢
• VOLUME 0.9× this market's 7-day norm, $7.4k in 24h

Book 1.8:1 bid, $16.5k/$9.4k within 10¢ · spread 2.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 19 Aug 2026, 13:06 UTC: Band breach (upper): 86¢ → 87¢ (+1.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.22× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 5 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 87¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 88¢, held +2.0ptspts
• Peak move: +2.0pts
• Held 75% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: yes
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 87¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots