Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +0.7pts: 98¢ at window start → 99¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 98¢ (band 94¢–98¢)
  band from 165 hourly obs / 7.0d
• BOOK Book 2.9:1 bid, $39.8k/$13.7k within 10¢
• VOLUME 0.5× this market's 7-day norm, $5.8k in 24h

Book 2.9:1 bid, $39.8k/$13.7k within 10¢ · spread 1.2¢

Triggers (1)

• 19 Aug 2026, 15:38 UTC: Band breach (upper): 98¢ → 99¢ (+0.6pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.11× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 7 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 99¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 99¢, held +0.6ptspts
• Peak move: +0.7pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 99¢
• Graded from 158 snapshots