Which party will win the U.S. Senate?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +0.0pts: 52¢ at window start → 52¢ at close
• BOOK Book 6.6:1 ask, $61.2k/$407.2k within 10¢
• VOLUME 1.1× this market's 7-day norm, $17.9k in 24h

Book 6.6:1 ask, $61.2k/$407.2k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 19 Aug 2026, 18:28 UTC: Band breach (upper): 52¢ → 53¢ (+1.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.33× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 14 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 53¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 52¢, held +0.0ptspts
• Peak move: +1.0pts
• Held 0% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: yes
• Price at close: 52¢
• Graded from 179 snapshots