US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -1.0pts: 25¢ at window start → 24¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 24¢ (band 24¢–42¢)
  band from 165 hourly obs / 7.0d
• BOOK Book 3.1:1 ask, $5.1k/$16.1k within 10¢
• VOLUME 0.8× this market's 7-day norm, $14.1k in 24h

Book 3.1:1 ask, $5.1k/$16.1k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 19 Aug 2026, 23:17 UTC: Band breach (lower): 25¢ → 24¢ (-1.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.06× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 3 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 24¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 24¢, held +1.0ptspts
• Peak move: +1.0pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 24¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots